Chattering classes have come close to consensus: Barack Obama better get used to hearing the Marine Band play “Hail to the Chief” as he goes about his day (how cool?). The man is as good as inaugurated. Polls have him ahead in ways that make us all go. Every historical analysis gives him the edge. Does anyone even remember the guy he’s running against?

Now comes the truth.

Things change, things change, things change. Polls change, moods change, inertia will likely change, and next thing you know the story — and chattering classes reporting or analyzing — will be amended beyond belief. Headlines You Can Expect: “Holy Lazarus! McCain Rises Again!”, “McCain: Pol with Nine Lives”, “Obama’d Out”, or “Obama? Oh Brother!” Which will no doubt be followed by a round of stories saying the exact opposite soon after, I promise.

If the Dem primaries taught us one thing, it’s that elections are cyclical. You remember, you were there… we all were. Oy were we. And statistics and polls prove that many of us were flip-flopping (a term sadly referring to one of John Kerry’s biggest downfalls in the 2004 election) our way through the Dem-on-Dem crime. We were Hill-raisers, we were Barockin’ the vote, and don’t forget we were flighty.

Media angles and strategic PR fuel our indecision. In 2004 Team Bush slammed John Kerry for chucking his medals of honor from his army days. Bush went AWOL, Kerry misplaced a few pieces of silver. In end Bush PR squad won the battle. They put the story first and spun it so meticulously it made enough people question Kerry’s patriotism (whatever).

It’s starting all over! Are you ready, troops? The media already came down on Obama over his refusal to don an American pride pin. Obama explained that the pin “became a substitute for true patriotism” and that he is “going to try to tell the American people what I believe will make this country great, and hopefully that will be a testimony to my patriotism.” Media translation: Obama hates America.

Oh, and John McCain, the poor geezer, is the easiest target… heart attack factor runs through his veins. Everyone’s zinging away with the old man-senior citizen punch line. Come on you know it’s hurtful! There are sites out there dedicated to predicting his heart attack. Can you say “Eeek”?

These are non-issue distractions that work, though. (I work in PR and I love distractions.) Examples are endless and the consequences disastrous. Let’s not forget Al Gore passionately tipping Tipper for a smooch to prove he’s not square. I’m still uncomfortable when I see her.

In the months to come, Desperate Housewives will not supply the same level of drama as CNN. Remember, this is our process… You asked for it. You earned it. You will live through it. Look the other way or sit back and enjoy.

Don’t forget to vote, man! [rockthevote.org]

Blogs have become cultural beacons, sculpting public opinion and the whole of the landscape. I have come to love the blogosphere. What’s not to love? Quick, easy, hilarious rants on current events, news, celebrity, anything and everything. It makes me laugh. It makes us all laugh. I’m a big fan, yet it drives me nuts when people put a greater emphasis on being funny rather than thoughtful. And the funnies are getting all of the credit.

Take Perez Hilton, self proclaimed Queen of all Media: his blog has made him rich and famous. There’s even a TV version of his “work” on VH1. He is a well-regarded, highly-quoted source regularly featured in other media. Why? Because he concocts funny word mashups and indiscriminately draws cocaine debris under the nostrils of celebrities, celebutants and celebutards? I laugh. But is it intelligent or thoughtful?

Not a whiff of either.

His counterparts are no exception. D-Listed, Pink is the New Blog, What Would Tyler Durden Do? –examples of cheap and hysterical hilarity, a lot of vulgarities and bathroom humor about stars and starlets…the writers are very funny, but do they have the chops to become real comedic writers with a day-to-day gig? Most of the humor is easy to come by (raunchy sex jokes that occur to the average 12-year-old boy); these bloggers are brave enough to boldly voice their inner tween. Where the rest of us would blush at the thought of quipping like that with even our closest and dearest, they in fact take the, yep you guessed it, plunger.

The newsiest is The Huffington Post, a digital version of Jon Stewart’s Daily Show. The content is there, the points are on and the contributing writers are some of the biggest uh names in the game (is it bad to shamefully plug myself in my own blog?), but it is not meant to serve as primary news source but more a way to buttress your information on an hourly basis. It says so up there in the fine print.

Wonkette.com, a famous offering about D.C. gossip, honestly describes itself as a, “blend of gossip, satire and things the author makes up.” Similarly, its parent, Gawker, is known for the same in a New York market. The problem is, people look to these sites as honest news sources instead of ha-ha jabs at anything plus everything.

And everyone is guilty these days. We’re all adapting blog speak (see Diablo Cody please) and abbreviated language that was once reserved for quickly jotting down messages via IM has made its way into the daily vernacular.

Remember Cingular’s enormously popular ad? The mom reprimands the daughter for texting too much. The daughter responds in text / IM code. It was only funny because we all got it. OMG people, WTF is going on?

Being tuned in does not make any of us educated while simple-minded and raunchy cynicism doe not make you a comedian and maintaining a blog does not make you a writer… In the end we are reading bloggers.

Oh yeah, and the most important point of today’s rant is this: Abbreviating words doesn’t make you original, just kind of annoying, except when it comes to me, obv. Duh.

Madonna seems to have a case of Girls Gone Wild-itis. Five years after swapping spit with Britney and X-tina, The Material Mom has proven again there’s an insecure college freshman in all of us….. Doing her seemingly bored jaunt hyping her new collection of quickly-thrown-together dance tunes, Madonna indulged in an onstage girl-on-girl kiss while performing in Paris. Turns out all the money and success in the world can’t buy better judgment – no judgment, of course.

Once upon a time this was totally Madonna’s thing. Her image was sex and it worked. That’s it. From her cone-shaped bras to those onstage simulated sex antics, Madonna was not only controversial, but captivating too. We couldn’t look away.

That was then. One marriage and three children later have changed things. Earth to Madonna, this stuff no longer shocks or amuses us. It’s confusing. Not the good kind of confusing. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but things have changed.

Her last book was a children’s book, not a sex book (there is a G-d), and she has replaced the likes of Sandra Bernhard with Lourdes, Rocco and the one she stole from Africa (how on earth did Access Hollywood manage to get that guy to talk?).

Madonna is married to Guy Ritchie. Last time I checked, publicly kissing another person is cheating. Male, female, on or offstage – remember this, Madge, a kiss is still a kiss.

How does Mr. Madonna feel watching his wife declare to her audience, “I’m always drawn to working with French people - and frenching French people. Vive la France!” Her awkward declaration led to a make out with her not-so-French back up dancer. Hmmm. Yeah. As if the guy doesn’t feel emasculated enough.

Point is, Madonna should be passed this by now. Yes, sexuality has always been a part of her image. She’s done enough of everything to forever cement that not only in our minds, but also in history. We get it.

What we love(d) about Madonna is her ever evolving, reinventing self – please, let’s have the sex stuff follow that. It’s icky.

Even if we weren’t so weirded out by her behavior, without having to go into this more—it’s simply old. This too needs to evolve. We’re not captivated, we’re bored. There’s no greater sin than boredom, M.

Instead of approaching the Big 50 like a 19-year-old desperately seeking attention, welcome it as an icon. Think of what Roseanne said at the TV Land Awards: “This is awesome! In old age you are congratulated, no longer that obnoxious bitch.”

Our long in the tooth President, George Dubya Bush, recently said “So long as I’m the President, my measure of success is victory — and success.” While the statement clearly does not make any sense, it sure explains a lot. If success is measured in success, and he’s the one measuring it, I’m just lost. We are all lost. And according to former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, that’s really the point.

The entire Bush Admin is going gaga over McClellan’s 341-page collection of anecdotes making money off Bush and Friends’ love of spin. This timely (okay maybe a bit late) memoir accuses Bush and the cronies of going easy on the truth and hiding behind propaganda. Who can blame them? The truth, she ain’t so pretty.

McClellan believes we were lied to and claims that he once fell for the propaganda rather than face the issues they pulled out their PR guns. He thinks “[Bush] and his advisers confused the propaganda campaign with the high level of candor and honesty so fundamentally needed to build and then sustain public support during a time of war.” Instead of carefully determining whether or not a war was necessary, they thought of ways to spin it to the American people. (BTW – how’s that working for you guys?)

McClellan blames the permanent campaign culture – terrific new buzz term – for the spin and untruthyness. I am constantly stressing the fundamental need for corporations and brands to employ smart PR. However, smart PR is not lying, it’s communicating. Welcome to an outstanding example of the tactic, let’s not use PR to communicate! Let’s use it to obfuscate!

Dubya is proud of the campaign culture. He recently explained “that in 2000 I said, ‘Vote for me. I’m an agent of change.’ In 2004, I said, ‘I’m not interested in change –I want to continue as president.’ Every candidate has got to say ‘change.’ That’s what the American people expect.”

With that we expected the truth – maybe even a message with a little bit of honesty. But no.

The former First PR Guy claims he was lied to by the Administration that is known for deceit. After being assured from top to bottom that Karl Rove and BFF Scooter were not involved in leaking agent Valerie Plame’s name, McClellan spoke to the press to defend them Of course we all found out that they did leak the name and someone forgot: “The first rule about Fight Club is you don’t talk about Fight Club.” Mr. McClellan was made a liar.

When Scott McClellan went to the White House Press Corps with that statement of “fact,” he was unknowingly fibbing. Some may not get why a PR pro would be so upset but it’s really simple: that lie cost him media street cred. At the end of the day, which is about 7 p.m., the only thing PR peeps have is their credibility. Yes we spin some (sometimes even at the gym) but the core of the message should always be true. When you lose it you’re out.

The White House is angry he wrote this book and much of the public (and the press) seem pissed it took him so long, but a lot of us know how slow the publishing world is. Personally, I think it’s a step in the right direction. As GW himself once said, a bit too cheerily, “All of us in America want there to be fairness when it comes to justice.” Who doesn’t, really?

Really. Who doesn’t?

As the CEO of a PR agency, I can’t even tell you how many potential clients ask “Do I really need PR?” Usually I just answer with a simple and slightly aggravated “Why Yes!” Today, however, I will answer with an example of what a smart, finely crafted and well-timed PR campaign (with strategy) can do.

The past few months we have seen historically vilified Microsoft attempt to take the current underdog, Yahoo, over with a slow hand. During the war Microsoft was seen as a Goliath, a heartless corporation out to bully Yahoo, a company determined to stand on its own.

Here’s the thing, PR frames reality. When the deal fell apart, Microsoft was smart and engaged the press early. Their PR team reached out and massaged reporters, putting the blame squarely on Yahoo.

The press painted a picture that made Microsoft seem reasonable and open to negotiations. Microsoft’s flexibility was met by an unwillingness on the part of Yahoo to negotiate or cooperate. The reason the deal fell apart had nothing to do with the suddenly valiant Microsoft; it fell apart because Yahoo was unreasonable.

While talking to the press Microsoft might have mentioned –naturally, off the record –that when you’re dealing with the takeover of a publicly traded company there are certain rules that each company must follow.

PR is more than spin. In case I forgot to mention this (wink plus wink), when done right, PR frames reality. The reality here is that the Yahoo board put the best interest of their shareholders aside.

And there are some real legal implications here. Right or wrong, the perception exists that the Yahoo board failed in their responsibility to their shareholders. When shareholders lose faith, stock price goes down. When stock price goes down, Yahoo will not be able to stand against Google. When that happens…well…there won’t be anyone left to go Yahoo! (one place where Yahoo!’s exclamation point works!)

People still may not like Microsoft (here’s a clip of Bill Gates taking a bullet to the dome in the South Park movie), but MS has framed reality to their benefit with some smart PR. Unlike Yahoo, Microsoft was out there–immediately. Yahoo’s CEO did not make statements or address the press until days after Microsoft’s well-timed and brilliant PR-strophe hit. By the time Yahoo hit the streets, people weren’t buying their story – the minds of the public were already made up.

Yes, Yahoo stressed their willingness to negotiate. They also said they were fulfilling their obligations to their shareholders. But alas, it was too late. The reality was already framed and the story already set.

Yahoo’s delay invited enormous share holder Carl Icahn in there panting and aiming to launch a proxy fight to remove the current Yahoo board. His argument? Same as Microsoft’s. There’s a good shot Yahoo will win over Icahn, but the battle to keep him away will cost Yahoo time and money, and time and money, and maybe even a little more time and money.

So you have to ask yourself, even if Yahoo did spurn Microsoft, had they controlled the story would Icahn have this window of opportunity? I don’t THINK so. All he is doing is taking advantage of the perception that Yahoo’s board is irresponsible – the perception Microsoft’s very own PR team put out there.

Lesson is, you need PR and you better be deft. The effect PR has goes way beyond people liking you, your product or your company. Always be the first person/company/whatever talking to the press. If it’s not you it’s your competition. Beat them to the punch; put your brand, your spin and your ideas out there.

And be smart about too, will ya?

It has been a never ending winter here in New York. My winter blues have been longing for the chance to spend a single day outside, lounge in the park, lunch outdoors, check out street fair or two…or so I thought.

I woke up Saturday thrilled with how beautiful it was out there. On my way to the door, I couldn’t help but pause to check my Facebook. What if somebody had written on my wall? Or what if there was some new event I had to add to my online schedule? I reasoned it would be irresponsible not to check.

Whew. One Big Mistake…it sucked me in fast and frenzyish.

Checking the FB turned into a cascading whirlwind of distraction – a real trip into the ole rabbit hole. That quick glimpse, the one that wasn’t meant to cause more than a 5-minute delay tops, consumed my day. I didn’t mean for it to happen!

While checking my Funwall, I got distracted by a Juno plug advertised right there on Facebook. I needed to buy the movie that instant. “Honest to blog” (great Junoism), there wasn’t a singular moment to spare. To add that extra bit of incentive, the good folks at iTunes threw in the soundtrack to FOR GOSH DARN FREE. Service with a smile is overrated. I’ll take service with a click any day!

I promised myself I wouldn’t actually watch the movie. I also told myself I was going to go to the store instead of ordering from Fresh Direct. I lied to myself.

Once I started my viewing pleasure, I accepted couch potato status for the day. Then it happened-outside guilt: A friend called insisting we go to the Farmer’s Market or the park. I felt bad turning the offer down. I had a very real case of bad relaxation!

Apparently, this is the state of the world. The blog Stuff White People Like” depicts a similar scenario. One friend says, “Hey, lets go for a hike in the park,” so the other guy says, “Thanks but I’ve been working all week and I’m really excited about watching this game,” and then the first guy responds with, “Don’t be a lump on the couch, you’re wasting your life away,” etc. Supposedly, “If you ignore them, they eventually go away.” Or so we can only hope.

During the sofa stupor I started messaging with an old friend who now spends his days teaching and traveling some outside world. He was on the side of a mountain in Dubai and he was on AIM! Yes, AIM. Which begs the question, is there even such a thing as the outdoors anymore? Does it exist?

Shed the shame, people, remember we’re celebrating Outdoors 2.0. Everyone wants to stay home–it’s national agoraphobia! When people are outside, they are on their Crackberry, phone or connected anyway—glancing at something. Exhale now.

My name is Richard and I’m a WiFi guy. I admit it extends further than my MetroCard. There I said it! First step to solving, right?

The Masters golf tournament opened Thursday. It is, in some ways, like Passover. It falls sometime in April, matters a great deal to a small segment of the population, and everyone else kind of looks up and thinks, “Oh, right, it’s probably time to take off the snow tires.”

But in recent years The Masters has been a somewhat bigger blip on America’s socio-cultural calendar, and for one reason: 11 Aprils ago, a man of mixed race months out of college went out there to take on the world’s best golfers (on a course, it should be noted, that for decades hadn’t allowed black members) and coolly destroyed them. Destroyed. Them. And ever since Tiger Woods put up the biggest winning margin at one of golf’s majors in over a century on its grandest stage, the tournament and the game have never been the same. The history from there is known. Tiger became the face of the sport and its best player. There were Nike ad campaigns, higher television ratings, swarming hordes in the galleries, etc. Blah blah-de-blah.

History and greatness and underdogs-cum-superstars attract eyes.

That’s old news, and has been the case in entertainment, sports, politics, and culture for the better part of forever. In everything there’s a pecking order. Bill Clinton will always draw a bigger crowd and a higher fee than Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, that French lady who won the Best Actress Oscar this year will be forgotten by six months after THIS year’s telecast; Lindsay Lohan, with zero awards to her name, is roughly 20,000 times more famous. Just the way it is. And we like it that way.

But what’s interesting this particular week is not The Cult of the Superstar. It’s The Cult of the Narrative. It’s often said that we build up our heroes only to tear them down. And to justify the claim we hold up to the examples of Britney Spears and Eliot Spitzer and all the rest. But I think it’s only part of the story. It isn’t the downfall we crave - it’s the Grand Story. We are a culture of Fabulists and Fictionalists and Dreamers and Absolutists. Our mediasphere behaves accordingly. Sure, sometimes the Grand Story is a bit more tangled and harder to pinpoint (what is it, for instance, we eventually want Hillary to represent in the end, win or lose?), but most of the time we get a handle on it early and fit the facts to it.

Tiger Woods has failed to win four of the past five Masters tournaments. This, of course, does nothing to diminish his deserved status as the world’s best at what he does. But his superstar status doesn’t alone quite explain why 90% of the coverage and attention is devoted to him again this year. Yes, we get it, he has an exponentially better chance to win than any other single golfer, but somehow Las Vegas puts him “only” at about even odds to take the thing. Surely there must be some worthy stories out there among the dozens and dozens in the field?

In 2007, an unknown named Zach Johnson came from nowhere to win the thing. Catnip for a country that loves an underdog, right? Well, 12 months later, I think even Zach Johnson’s family is probably more interested in The Grand Tiger Narrative than they are in young Zach’s chances to repeat. And it’s because we like big, shiny, lasting arcs that we can take with us from one season to the next.

We like the Narrative. We like curling up and having ESPN (or Access Hollywood, MSNBC, you choose) filter out all those annoying subplots and details, the Zach Johnsons and the Marion Cotillards.

It’s the Narrative that is at work this weekend in Augusta, not the Known Superstar. And there aren’t many nuanced alternatives. Downfall is one, like what we’ve chosen for Britney. Glory is another, and it is Tiger’s at our behest. Some we build to tear down. But some we build to keep building and building and building.

Today’s the day that “2011: Trendspotting” is officially released.

So… What’s it all about?

Start with a clear head and a sense that everything that’s happened in the last couple of years is about to fall away, whether you want to pick at the dead skin or not. Then take an overarching peek at what’s ahead—while knowing that the conventional wisdom is totally wrong. After that, you laugh a lot at everything you’ve livedthrough—and some of us even have to take a gander at those horrible haircuts of the 1970s to remind ourselves that mistakes are meant to be remembered, chuckled at, then forgotten forever.

For the cherry, you dust yourself off and start anew, usingthe tools you have learned from everyone you listen to andbelieve in. If those people are saying anything resembling thetruth, you are in good shape.

So it is: an exploration of trends that will affect our lives and a sense of what we have to overcome just beforewe leap into the new about-to-be-filled space. Or, as Woody Allen once said: “A kind of void, you know, an empty one.”

And now the news: I don’t want to predict a thing—notreally. Regardless of what the soothsayers you read have beensaying (and think about it: a book? Are you kidding? How old- world, anyway?), prediction of even the simplest events is extremely difficult and at best a finger in the air.

What am I going to do, predict new types of cities and worldviews and sex and networking and the dance between workers and employers, yada yada?

Or, particularly, forecast how we all change constantly? Then there’re the topics I have chosen: notorious people and famous places, social movements, ecologica lideals, communication issues, artistic thoughts, sex forthe ages, science, and all that outlandish tech.

Predicting all that is just impossible. What I’ll do, rather, is explain and forecast a range of possible futures for the subject, which is what will begin happening around the year 2011 and beyond—create a map, rather than aspecific one-dimensional destination!

Most books build credibility by employing a tone of absolute authority and driving away any shadow of uncertainty. When I am working in fields where one can make credible projections or where there are accepted techniques for long-term forecasts, I will speak with confidence and say you can’t stop this. But a kind of majestic confidence is false—fake, actually. (See the chapter “Self Something or Other,” on artificial confidence.)

On the contrary, it is imperative that I admitonce and for all that looking into the future is an uncertain business—except for certain people who read magic eight balls with uncanny ability.

Here I explain to you - already doubting you - why this is so and why it can be a cause for anxious hope. Am I a futurist? I guess so. Since the publication of my first trends book, “TrendSpotting,” in 2002, I’ve been told I am—by the major andminor media, and by a host of influentials.

But I don’t believe in clichés and run from them with my legs flailing! The book did a good job of looking ahead for you (and me). A book teaching folks how to look ahead for business calls for intelligent, grounded speculation, and of course professional expertise was the call of that day. I am not really as much futuristic as I am a show-off: I want you to use this stuff thatI’ve gathered and realized to chart possibilities.

Here is what we will talk about in these pages. Will this book tell you about the future? More than anything,it’s loaded with topics: ideas to spur you on, move you in certain directions, and inspire you to look ahead.

* We all will work while we’re sleeping. Gosh, are all thesenew products going to be, ahem, utilized in hours when we’re supposedly adrift in our dreams? So no more wasted hours for us suckers!

* Self-involvement evolves into an art form. What used to be gross and looked down upon—self-aggrandizement— becomes in no uncertain terms beloved and coveted. Everyone wants to be like David Geffen.

* Slow attention span takes precedence. ADD peaks.We begin to take a backseat to speed, and the sudden craze is, “Why rush? We have all the time in the world.” Some businessesare born; others are down!

* Customer service finally becomes law. That’s enough ofbeing put on hold. After years of thinking silently, a newmovement is afoot: it’s an adhered-to policy to take care of the paying folk!

* Look forward to “turn of the decade syndrome,” where we reboot our lives. Come January 2011, the actual start of a new decade (and not a moment too soon, y’all) is upon us. Everyone prepares madly—just like Y2K, but positively—and uses it to make the one change to themselves that they’ve been desperate to achieve. So quit, start, redo—or forgive. It all happens on that very day!

* There’s a movement to stay at home that occurs because— there’s no real explanation, so why fake it? Our friends are more relaxed and friendly there.

You’ll notice in the book that each chapter is short, seriously so. That’s what you want, and belaboring 70 or 90 topics seemed really dull and unnecessary.

Take a look at it.

The future of the future is a huge idea. It scares the crap outof me. The only way to make a book out of it (except that I had a contract, dude) was to give as much knowledge as my braincould muster, and try to leave out nonsense that I found fascinating when I honestly knew that it was only me who got what it was—or cared.

Thanks for joining.

Dear Blog Person:

Junk. That’s what these last few years has amassed.  In an effort to combat mass eye-rolling and sighing, I have written a new book that looks at the glorious and positive news and knowledge we should look forward to in the next decade.

This blog is about 2011—and getting there. The book is a guide to the fantastic decade ahead for capitalists, out on 4/10 and now via Amazon.  

I created 77 short-short chapters based on research, forecasting, hunches, and insider data on topics as wide-reaching as…the berth is huge.   I’m the man behind Full Frontal PR, trendSpotting, and the recent collection of no-BS advice to salespeople called Punk Marketing. Each has a cult following for being just left of bullshit and contains funny, digestible and valuable stuff for whoever dives in. In the new collection– my most adventurous and the last for a while—I am working with a publisher as “out there” as I am. 

Heck, since the idea of a book is old world to start with (my Mom didn’t bring up no fool), McGraw-Hill and I are crafting a hilarious design that is even a bit farfetched. That means: bullets, lists, thought-bubbles, icons, outrageous moments, and footnotes (my trademark) that are actually next to the sentences themselves. You can even read the thing upside down.  Speaking of stand out, with the book is this, the wholly up-to-the-minute destination called, of all things, Laermer.com. On it are planned daily updates on news, trends, thoughts and impolitic asides for 2011’s participants to giggle with—and add their takes.  Also, I will drop in quizzes, prizes, and more quizzes.   Now the pitch: Just grab a quiet moment and read –either my book or this blog or anything except another damn email. As for me: Look. I’m as cynical as you are, and I know how many trend books are out there. But I’m not Faith Popcorn with a finger in the air! That’s why nothing here is proffered as deathly serious—unless you count the chapter on the death of reading.   Enough from me—at least for a second… See you here. Call me if you need a laugh.