It has been a never ending winter here in New York. My winter blues have been longing for the chance to spend a single day outside, lounge in the park, lunch outdoors, check out street fair or two…or so I thought.

I woke up Saturday thrilled with how beautiful it was out there. On my way to the door, I couldn’t help but pause to check my Facebook. What if somebody had written on my wall? Or what if there was some new event I had to add to my online schedule? I reasoned it would be irresponsible not to check.

Whew. One Big Mistake…it sucked me in fast and frenzyish.

Checking the FB turned into a cascading whirlwind of distraction – a real trip into the ole rabbit hole. That quick glimpse, the one that wasn’t meant to cause more than a 5-minute delay tops, consumed my day. I didn’t mean for it to happen!

While checking my Funwall, I got distracted by a Juno plug advertised right there on Facebook. I needed to buy the movie that instant. “Honest to blog” (great Junoism), there wasn’t a singular moment to spare. To add that extra bit of incentive, the good folks at iTunes threw in the soundtrack to FOR GOSH DARN FREE. Service with a smile is overrated. I’ll take service with a click any day!

I promised myself I wouldn’t actually watch the movie. I also told myself I was going to go to the store instead of ordering from Fresh Direct. I lied to myself.

Once I started my viewing pleasure, I accepted couch potato status for the day. Then it happened-outside guilt: A friend called insisting we go to the Farmer’s Market or the park. I felt bad turning the offer down. I had a very real case of bad relaxation!

Apparently, this is the state of the world. The blog Stuff White People Like” depicts a similar scenario. One friend says, “Hey, lets go for a hike in the park,” so the other guy says, “Thanks but I’ve been working all week and I’m really excited about watching this game,” and then the first guy responds with, “Don’t be a lump on the couch, you’re wasting your life away,” etc. Supposedly, “If you ignore them, they eventually go away.” Or so we can only hope.

During the sofa stupor I started messaging with an old friend who now spends his days teaching and traveling some outside world. He was on the side of a mountain in Dubai and he was on AIM! Yes, AIM. Which begs the question, is there even such a thing as the outdoors anymore? Does it exist?

Shed the shame, people, remember we’re celebrating Outdoors 2.0. Everyone wants to stay home–it’s national agoraphobia! When people are outside, they are on their Crackberry, phone or connected anyway—glancing at something. Exhale now.

My name is Richard and I’m a WiFi guy. I admit it extends further than my MetroCard. There I said it! First step to solving, right?

The Masters golf tournament opened Thursday. It is, in some ways, like Passover. It falls sometime in April, matters a great deal to a small segment of the population, and everyone else kind of looks up and thinks, “Oh, right, it’s probably time to take off the snow tires.”

But in recent years The Masters has been a somewhat bigger blip on America’s socio-cultural calendar, and for one reason: 11 Aprils ago, a man of mixed race months out of college went out there to take on the world’s best golfers (on a course, it should be noted, that for decades hadn’t allowed black members) and coolly destroyed them. Destroyed. Them. And ever since Tiger Woods put up the biggest winning margin at one of golf’s majors in over a century on its grandest stage, the tournament and the game have never been the same. The history from there is known. Tiger became the face of the sport and its best player. There were Nike ad campaigns, higher television ratings, swarming hordes in the galleries, etc. Blah blah-de-blah.

History and greatness and underdogs-cum-superstars attract eyes.

That’s old news, and has been the case in entertainment, sports, politics, and culture for the better part of forever. In everything there’s a pecking order. Bill Clinton will always draw a bigger crowd and a higher fee than Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, that French lady who won the Best Actress Oscar this year will be forgotten by six months after THIS year’s telecast; Lindsay Lohan, with zero awards to her name, is roughly 20,000 times more famous. Just the way it is. And we like it that way.

But what’s interesting this particular week is not The Cult of the Superstar. It’s The Cult of the Narrative. It’s often said that we build up our heroes only to tear them down. And to justify the claim we hold up to the examples of Britney Spears and Eliot Spitzer and all the rest. But I think it’s only part of the story. It isn’t the downfall we crave - it’s the Grand Story. We are a culture of Fabulists and Fictionalists and Dreamers and Absolutists. Our mediasphere behaves accordingly. Sure, sometimes the Grand Story is a bit more tangled and harder to pinpoint (what is it, for instance, we eventually want Hillary to represent in the end, win or lose?), but most of the time we get a handle on it early and fit the facts to it.

Tiger Woods has failed to win four of the past five Masters tournaments. This, of course, does nothing to diminish his deserved status as the world’s best at what he does. But his superstar status doesn’t alone quite explain why 90% of the coverage and attention is devoted to him again this year. Yes, we get it, he has an exponentially better chance to win than any other single golfer, but somehow Las Vegas puts him “only” at about even odds to take the thing. Surely there must be some worthy stories out there among the dozens and dozens in the field?

In 2007, an unknown named Zach Johnson came from nowhere to win the thing. Catnip for a country that loves an underdog, right? Well, 12 months later, I think even Zach Johnson’s family is probably more interested in The Grand Tiger Narrative than they are in young Zach’s chances to repeat. And it’s because we like big, shiny, lasting arcs that we can take with us from one season to the next.

We like the Narrative. We like curling up and having ESPN (or Access Hollywood, MSNBC, you choose) filter out all those annoying subplots and details, the Zach Johnsons and the Marion Cotillards.

It’s the Narrative that is at work this weekend in Augusta, not the Known Superstar. And there aren’t many nuanced alternatives. Downfall is one, like what we’ve chosen for Britney. Glory is another, and it is Tiger’s at our behest. Some we build to tear down. But some we build to keep building and building and building.

Today’s the day that “2011: Trendspotting” is officially released.

So… What’s it all about?

Start with a clear head and a sense that everything that’s happened in the last couple of years is about to fall away, whether you want to pick at the dead skin or not. Then take an overarching peek at what’s ahead—while knowing that the conventional wisdom is totally wrong. After that, you laugh a lot at everything you’ve livedthrough—and some of us even have to take a gander at those horrible haircuts of the 1970s to remind ourselves that mistakes are meant to be remembered, chuckled at, then forgotten forever.

For the cherry, you dust yourself off and start anew, usingthe tools you have learned from everyone you listen to andbelieve in. If those people are saying anything resembling thetruth, you are in good shape.

So it is: an exploration of trends that will affect our lives and a sense of what we have to overcome just beforewe leap into the new about-to-be-filled space. Or, as Woody Allen once said: “A kind of void, you know, an empty one.”

And now the news: I don’t want to predict a thing—notreally. Regardless of what the soothsayers you read have beensaying (and think about it: a book? Are you kidding? How old- world, anyway?), prediction of even the simplest events is extremely difficult and at best a finger in the air.

What am I going to do, predict new types of cities and worldviews and sex and networking and the dance between workers and employers, yada yada?

Or, particularly, forecast how we all change constantly? Then there’re the topics I have chosen: notorious people and famous places, social movements, ecologica lideals, communication issues, artistic thoughts, sex forthe ages, science, and all that outlandish tech.

Predicting all that is just impossible. What I’ll do, rather, is explain and forecast a range of possible futures for the subject, which is what will begin happening around the year 2011 and beyond—create a map, rather than aspecific one-dimensional destination!

Most books build credibility by employing a tone of absolute authority and driving away any shadow of uncertainty. When I am working in fields where one can make credible projections or where there are accepted techniques for long-term forecasts, I will speak with confidence and say you can’t stop this. But a kind of majestic confidence is false—fake, actually. (See the chapter “Self Something or Other,” on artificial confidence.)

On the contrary, it is imperative that I admitonce and for all that looking into the future is an uncertain business—except for certain people who read magic eight balls with uncanny ability.

Here I explain to you - already doubting you - why this is so and why it can be a cause for anxious hope. Am I a futurist? I guess so. Since the publication of my first trends book, “TrendSpotting,” in 2002, I’ve been told I am—by the major andminor media, and by a host of influentials.

But I don’t believe in clichés and run from them with my legs flailing! The book did a good job of looking ahead for you (and me). A book teaching folks how to look ahead for business calls for intelligent, grounded speculation, and of course professional expertise was the call of that day. I am not really as much futuristic as I am a show-off: I want you to use this stuff thatI’ve gathered and realized to chart possibilities.

Here is what we will talk about in these pages. Will this book tell you about the future? More than anything,it’s loaded with topics: ideas to spur you on, move you in certain directions, and inspire you to look ahead.

* We all will work while we’re sleeping. Gosh, are all thesenew products going to be, ahem, utilized in hours when we’re supposedly adrift in our dreams? So no more wasted hours for us suckers!

* Self-involvement evolves into an art form. What used to be gross and looked down upon—self-aggrandizement— becomes in no uncertain terms beloved and coveted. Everyone wants to be like David Geffen.

* Slow attention span takes precedence. ADD peaks.We begin to take a backseat to speed, and the sudden craze is, “Why rush? We have all the time in the world.” Some businessesare born; others are down!

* Customer service finally becomes law. That’s enough ofbeing put on hold. After years of thinking silently, a newmovement is afoot: it’s an adhered-to policy to take care of the paying folk!

* Look forward to “turn of the decade syndrome,” where we reboot our lives. Come January 2011, the actual start of a new decade (and not a moment too soon, y’all) is upon us. Everyone prepares madly—just like Y2K, but positively—and uses it to make the one change to themselves that they’ve been desperate to achieve. So quit, start, redo—or forgive. It all happens on that very day!

* There’s a movement to stay at home that occurs because— there’s no real explanation, so why fake it? Our friends are more relaxed and friendly there.

You’ll notice in the book that each chapter is short, seriously so. That’s what you want, and belaboring 70 or 90 topics seemed really dull and unnecessary.

Take a look at it.

The future of the future is a huge idea. It scares the crap outof me. The only way to make a book out of it (except that I had a contract, dude) was to give as much knowledge as my braincould muster, and try to leave out nonsense that I found fascinating when I honestly knew that it was only me who got what it was—or cared.

Thanks for joining.

“2011” in Women’s Wear Daily last week…   ADVICE ON STAYING AHEAD OF THE TRENDS

Valerie Seckler

19 March 2008

Women’s Wear Daily

Live in the now is advice oft given to many an overstimulated, overwrought denizen of the 21st century. Don’t tell that to public relations pro Richard Laermer, though. He’ll probably start making the case for why it’s essential to look ahead, in order to avoid being swamped by new trends, as there are more things cropping up (or being reintroduced with a twist) faster than most can stay on top of.

Laermer, author of more than a dozen books, gives some tips for spotting trends with staying power in his 13th title, “2011: Trendspotting for the Next Decade” (McGraw Hill, $25.95), slated to be published in April. The guidebook-style book seeks to prepare marketing and media types, among others, for a near future the writer marks as beginning on Jan. 10, 2011, a date he selected as it’s 10 years after former president Bill Clinton left office.

“Everybody I speak to, even kids, says, ‘I can’t wait until so-and-so,’ instead of ‘I’m excited about now,’” related the 46-year-old chief executive of RLM Public Relations Inc. “This is a mediocre time; a time to take a deep breath, look ahead and have some fun [doing so].” In fact, the writer, whose voice generally runs from colorfully anecdotal to good-natured gotcha, needles fellow futurist and competitor Faith Popcorn, whom he recalls in his book as having left him with “the impression she wasn’t that into her work. A little bored….Besides, she runs a ’strategic trend-based marketing consultancy.’ My personal goal is to rid the world of that kinda jargon,” he claims, even though his new book is subtitled “Trendspotting for the Next Decade.” (There’s only so much one can take too seriously, seems to be the subtext.) Informed of this take, Popcorn protests serenely, “I adore my work. I’m certainly not bored. When I leave my plane seat, it looks like a billy goat ravaged it,” she added, referring to the considerable pile of information she typically ingests in flight.

Among the notions - and wishes - the author of “2011″ has chewed on and projected himself are that people will start slowing down in their daily lives (”Why rush?”); customer service will finally become a “law” of sorts (”That’s enough of being put on hold.”), and the movement to stay at home will gather momentum. One reason we ought to care about such things is because it’s becoming “a little scary” for people who “don’t know at least a little about what’s going on,” Laermer said - and all the more so as commerce increasingly overwhelms culture. Notwithstanding his public relations firm’s role in greasing the wheels of commerce, the author said one result of commercialism’s onslaught is a growing cadre who are feeling like “staying in bed and pulling the covers over their head.”

In one of the book’s many how-to moments, Laermer devotes some of his “Dive Into Trends” chapter to a list of “What you can do starting today.” His advice encompasses several basics, which could fall by the wayside in harried times, such as: Get on mailing lists about things that interest you. Talk to experts - arrange to meet. Don’t ignore indicators. In 1929, the only ones who made it through the Crash were those who read newspapers. Just do it. (Fine, Nike had a point.)

Among the brands doing a good job connecting with the contemporary consumers Laermer considers “hyper-aware kings” are Apple and Verizon, while Starbucks and Victoria’s Secret are failing to make the grade. Apple gets his thumbs-up for its quick offer of a lower-priced iPhone when the first model sold at a less-than-brisk clip and its remake of Apple TV this year, enabling downloads of movies and music directly from iTunes for viewing on enhanced digital and high-definition TVs. “Would IBM have done that?” he asked rhetorically of the redesigns. Verizon wins “starting to come around” kudos for its 30-day, opt-out policy.

Victoria’s Secret is chided for product quality that doesn’t equal the brand’s hype, a problem acknowledged this month by the chain’s ceo, Sharen Jester Turney. And Starbucks is a brand Laermer loves to hate, most recently for its hype of employee training and most broadly because at the shops he finds there is “no local element.” Laermer ties up these threads with a trend, as well: “Since we are the most networked people in history, you can’t get away with stating anything sloppily anymore,” he writes. “When you communicate with your customer, be careful.”   

Dear Blog Person:

Junk. That’s what these last few years has amassed.  In an effort to combat mass eye-rolling and sighing, I have written a new book that looks at the glorious and positive news and knowledge we should look forward to in the next decade.

This blog is about 2011—and getting there. The book is a guide to the fantastic decade ahead for capitalists, out on 4/10 and now via Amazon.  

I created 77 short-short chapters based on research, forecasting, hunches, and insider data on topics as wide-reaching as…the berth is huge.   I’m the man behind Full Frontal PR, trendSpotting, and the recent collection of no-BS advice to salespeople called Punk Marketing. Each has a cult following for being just left of bullshit and contains funny, digestible and valuable stuff for whoever dives in. In the new collection– my most adventurous and the last for a while—I am working with a publisher as “out there” as I am. 

Heck, since the idea of a book is old world to start with (my Mom didn’t bring up no fool), McGraw-Hill and I are crafting a hilarious design that is even a bit farfetched. That means: bullets, lists, thought-bubbles, icons, outrageous moments, and footnotes (my trademark) that are actually next to the sentences themselves. You can even read the thing upside down.  Speaking of stand out, with the book is this, the wholly up-to-the-minute destination called, of all things, Laermer.com. On it are planned daily updates on news, trends, thoughts and impolitic asides for 2011’s participants to giggle with—and add their takes.  Also, I will drop in quizzes, prizes, and more quizzes.   Now the pitch: Just grab a quiet moment and read –either my book or this blog or anything except another damn email. As for me: Look. I’m as cynical as you are, and I know how many trend books are out there. But I’m not Faith Popcorn with a finger in the air! That’s why nothing here is proffered as deathly serious—unless you count the chapter on the death of reading.   Enough from me—at least for a second… See you here. Call me if you need a laugh.