Chattering classes have come close to consensus: Barack Obama better get used to hearing the Marine Band play “Hail to the Chief” as he goes about his day (how cool?). The man is as good as inaugurated. Polls have him ahead in ways that make us all go. Every historical analysis gives him the edge. Does anyone even remember the guy he’s running against?

Now comes the truth.

Things change, things change, things change. Polls change, moods change, inertia will likely change, and next thing you know the story — and chattering classes reporting or analyzing — will be amended beyond belief. Headlines You Can Expect: “Holy Lazarus! McCain Rises Again!”, “McCain: Pol with Nine Lives”, “Obama’d Out”, or “Obama? Oh Brother!” Which will no doubt be followed by a round of stories saying the exact opposite soon after, I promise.

If the Dem primaries taught us one thing, it’s that elections are cyclical. You remember, you were there… we all were. Oy were we. And statistics and polls prove that many of us were flip-flopping (a term sadly referring to one of John Kerry’s biggest downfalls in the 2004 election) our way through the Dem-on-Dem crime. We were Hill-raisers, we were Barockin’ the vote, and don’t forget we were flighty.

Media angles and strategic PR fuel our indecision. In 2004 Team Bush slammed John Kerry for chucking his medals of honor from his army days. Bush went AWOL, Kerry misplaced a few pieces of silver. In end Bush PR squad won the battle. They put the story first and spun it so meticulously it made enough people question Kerry’s patriotism (whatever).

It’s starting all over! Are you ready, troops? The media already came down on Obama over his refusal to don an American pride pin. Obama explained that the pin “became a substitute for true patriotism” and that he is “going to try to tell the American people what I believe will make this country great, and hopefully that will be a testimony to my patriotism.” Media translation: Obama hates America.

Oh, and John McCain, the poor geezer, is the easiest target… heart attack factor runs through his veins. Everyone’s zinging away with the old man-senior citizen punch line. Come on you know it’s hurtful! There are sites out there dedicated to predicting his heart attack. Can you say “Eeek”?

These are non-issue distractions that work, though. (I work in PR and I love distractions.) Examples are endless and the consequences disastrous. Let’s not forget Al Gore passionately tipping Tipper for a smooch to prove he’s not square. I’m still uncomfortable when I see her.

In the months to come, Desperate Housewives will not supply the same level of drama as CNN. Remember, this is our process… You asked for it. You earned it. You will live through it. Look the other way or sit back and enjoy.

Don’t forget to vote, man! [rockthevote.org]

Madonna seems to have a case of Girls Gone Wild-itis. Five years after swapping spit with Britney and X-tina, The Material Mom has proven again there’s an insecure college freshman in all of us….. Doing her seemingly bored jaunt hyping her new collection of quickly-thrown-together dance tunes, Madonna indulged in an onstage girl-on-girl kiss while performing in Paris. Turns out all the money and success in the world can’t buy better judgment – no judgment, of course.

Once upon a time this was totally Madonna’s thing. Her image was sex and it worked. That’s it. From her cone-shaped bras to those onstage simulated sex antics, Madonna was not only controversial, but captivating too. We couldn’t look away.

That was then. One marriage and three children later have changed things. Earth to Madonna, this stuff no longer shocks or amuses us. It’s confusing. Not the good kind of confusing. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but things have changed.

Her last book was a children’s book, not a sex book (there is a G-d), and she has replaced the likes of Sandra Bernhard with Lourdes, Rocco and the one she stole from Africa (how on earth did Access Hollywood manage to get that guy to talk?).

Madonna is married to Guy Ritchie. Last time I checked, publicly kissing another person is cheating. Male, female, on or offstage – remember this, Madge, a kiss is still a kiss.

How does Mr. Madonna feel watching his wife declare to her audience, “I’m always drawn to working with French people - and frenching French people. Vive la France!” Her awkward declaration led to a make out with her not-so-French back up dancer. Hmmm. Yeah. As if the guy doesn’t feel emasculated enough.

Point is, Madonna should be passed this by now. Yes, sexuality has always been a part of her image. She’s done enough of everything to forever cement that not only in our minds, but also in history. We get it.

What we love(d) about Madonna is her ever evolving, reinventing self – please, let’s have the sex stuff follow that. It’s icky.

Even if we weren’t so weirded out by her behavior, without having to go into this more—it’s simply old. This too needs to evolve. We’re not captivated, we’re bored. There’s no greater sin than boredom, M.

Instead of approaching the Big 50 like a 19-year-old desperately seeking attention, welcome it as an icon. Think of what Roseanne said at the TV Land Awards: “This is awesome! In old age you are congratulated, no longer that obnoxious bitch.”

Our long in the tooth President, George Dubya Bush, recently said “So long as I’m the President, my measure of success is victory — and success.” While the statement clearly does not make any sense, it sure explains a lot. If success is measured in success, and he’s the one measuring it, I’m just lost. We are all lost. And according to former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, that’s really the point.

The entire Bush Admin is going gaga over McClellan’s 341-page collection of anecdotes making money off Bush and Friends’ love of spin. This timely (okay maybe a bit late) memoir accuses Bush and the cronies of going easy on the truth and hiding behind propaganda. Who can blame them? The truth, she ain’t so pretty.

McClellan believes we were lied to and claims that he once fell for the propaganda rather than face the issues they pulled out their PR guns. He thinks “[Bush] and his advisers confused the propaganda campaign with the high level of candor and honesty so fundamentally needed to build and then sustain public support during a time of war.” Instead of carefully determining whether or not a war was necessary, they thought of ways to spin it to the American people. (BTW – how’s that working for you guys?)

McClellan blames the permanent campaign culture – terrific new buzz term – for the spin and untruthyness. I am constantly stressing the fundamental need for corporations and brands to employ smart PR. However, smart PR is not lying, it’s communicating. Welcome to an outstanding example of the tactic, let’s not use PR to communicate! Let’s use it to obfuscate!

Dubya is proud of the campaign culture. He recently explained “that in 2000 I said, ‘Vote for me. I’m an agent of change.’ In 2004, I said, ‘I’m not interested in change –I want to continue as president.’ Every candidate has got to say ‘change.’ That’s what the American people expect.”

With that we expected the truth – maybe even a message with a little bit of honesty. But no.

The former First PR Guy claims he was lied to by the Administration that is known for deceit. After being assured from top to bottom that Karl Rove and BFF Scooter were not involved in leaking agent Valerie Plame’s name, McClellan spoke to the press to defend them Of course we all found out that they did leak the name and someone forgot: “The first rule about Fight Club is you don’t talk about Fight Club.” Mr. McClellan was made a liar.

When Scott McClellan went to the White House Press Corps with that statement of “fact,” he was unknowingly fibbing. Some may not get why a PR pro would be so upset but it’s really simple: that lie cost him media street cred. At the end of the day, which is about 7 p.m., the only thing PR peeps have is their credibility. Yes we spin some (sometimes even at the gym) but the core of the message should always be true. When you lose it you’re out.

The White House is angry he wrote this book and much of the public (and the press) seem pissed it took him so long, but a lot of us know how slow the publishing world is. Personally, I think it’s a step in the right direction. As GW himself once said, a bit too cheerily, “All of us in America want there to be fairness when it comes to justice.” Who doesn’t, really?

Really. Who doesn’t?

As the CEO of a PR agency, I can’t even tell you how many potential clients ask “Do I really need PR?” Usually I just answer with a simple and slightly aggravated “Why Yes!” Today, however, I will answer with an example of what a smart, finely crafted and well-timed PR campaign (with strategy) can do.

The past few months we have seen historically vilified Microsoft attempt to take the current underdog, Yahoo, over with a slow hand. During the war Microsoft was seen as a Goliath, a heartless corporation out to bully Yahoo, a company determined to stand on its own.

Here’s the thing, PR frames reality. When the deal fell apart, Microsoft was smart and engaged the press early. Their PR team reached out and massaged reporters, putting the blame squarely on Yahoo.

The press painted a picture that made Microsoft seem reasonable and open to negotiations. Microsoft’s flexibility was met by an unwillingness on the part of Yahoo to negotiate or cooperate. The reason the deal fell apart had nothing to do with the suddenly valiant Microsoft; it fell apart because Yahoo was unreasonable.

While talking to the press Microsoft might have mentioned –naturally, off the record –that when you’re dealing with the takeover of a publicly traded company there are certain rules that each company must follow.

PR is more than spin. In case I forgot to mention this (wink plus wink), when done right, PR frames reality. The reality here is that the Yahoo board put the best interest of their shareholders aside.

And there are some real legal implications here. Right or wrong, the perception exists that the Yahoo board failed in their responsibility to their shareholders. When shareholders lose faith, stock price goes down. When stock price goes down, Yahoo will not be able to stand against Google. When that happens…well…there won’t be anyone left to go Yahoo! (one place where Yahoo!’s exclamation point works!)

People still may not like Microsoft (here’s a clip of Bill Gates taking a bullet to the dome in the South Park movie), but MS has framed reality to their benefit with some smart PR. Unlike Yahoo, Microsoft was out there–immediately. Yahoo’s CEO did not make statements or address the press until days after Microsoft’s well-timed and brilliant PR-strophe hit. By the time Yahoo hit the streets, people weren’t buying their story – the minds of the public were already made up.

Yes, Yahoo stressed their willingness to negotiate. They also said they were fulfilling their obligations to their shareholders. But alas, it was too late. The reality was already framed and the story already set.

Yahoo’s delay invited enormous share holder Carl Icahn in there panting and aiming to launch a proxy fight to remove the current Yahoo board. His argument? Same as Microsoft’s. There’s a good shot Yahoo will win over Icahn, but the battle to keep him away will cost Yahoo time and money, and time and money, and maybe even a little more time and money.

So you have to ask yourself, even if Yahoo did spurn Microsoft, had they controlled the story would Icahn have this window of opportunity? I don’t THINK so. All he is doing is taking advantage of the perception that Yahoo’s board is irresponsible – the perception Microsoft’s very own PR team put out there.

Lesson is, you need PR and you better be deft. The effect PR has goes way beyond people liking you, your product or your company. Always be the first person/company/whatever talking to the press. If it’s not you it’s your competition. Beat them to the punch; put your brand, your spin and your ideas out there.

And be smart about too, will ya?

In “Exit Ghost,” Philip Roth’s alter ego Nathan Zuckerman informs a young writer: “No one reads anyone when you think about it.” It’s a good line but not true. Steve Jobs was a fool to emote how people have no patience for books. I get 100 letters a month from people taking something from what I write. People would read even more if publishers were even a tiny bit more forward-thinking.

In my book “Punk Marketing” one particular thought appears incessantly: don’t do what you’re doing because it’s the way it’s been done forever. Publishing industry needs that advice in an overt way.

Here’s my story:

I’m a writer - outside of my work running RLM PR, the aptly-named 19 year old public relations firm that I’m damn proud of. Anyway, in the new one titled “2011” there are 77 funny and non-methodical chapters where I pour my heart out about our own outlandish future. To witness the future is to rethink the past and learn something from it. That’s what I’m doing.

I am seriously down on the publishing world (even though I do like McGraw-Hill, I’m still down on it). It’s starting to make little sense why I would write something that while widely read could be given out in a “cleverer” format. Doing a book with a major corporation just starts to seem…odd, given the proclivities in which I do everything else now. With that far-reaching statement, and by means of explaining my thought process, here is why publishing, as the kids say, needs to man up and change itself quickly. Here are some questions I hope will make you go, “I see.”

1. Who’s in charge here? How can a 22-year-old editor bid on a book? What does a post-graduate $32,000-a-year fresh-out know what will hit with the public? Why does this frequently appear to be a case of the nuthouse leaving the inmates to decide! People in publishing (except those that are up top and doing well) are not really supervised, but there are tons a folks who say, “I have to make sure they are in charge of these decisions.” Adorable when they were six and playing with the Easy Bake Oven.

2. How do you expect people to pay 25 dollars for a book!? It’s ridiculous. Economics of publishing need to be studied. And no, “Do paperbacks” is not the answer because Amazon doesn’t feature them. I watch publishers skimp on what’s important—like Web destinations for books —and outsource a lot to India and cheap-labor countries. This is all in the name of corporate salvation. I guess.

3. The editing is done exactly how far in advance? If I write a book that is to come out in say December of 08– they have to have it in February. Why? ‘Cause they have a “schedule to follow,” but it would seem with digital technology you should be able to write right up to the deadline (like we do online).

4. Marketing is something that happens when? You probably know this but publishers basically print and cross their fingers–unless your name is Grisham, King, or Winfrey. But to market them is the REAL waste of money… their fans will find their books like a stampede. It’s obvious that publishers publish way too many books, and have no faith in anything. They just hope something will stick. It’s all teflon!

5. You give nothing away? Every now and then a maker of books announces “Here’s a chapter” gratis, or introduces a limited time free download for online consumption … The limited part is what makes people go “how old-fashioned.” GIVE IT AWAY NOW. (And if I were allowed, you’d get free chapters all the time, but alas I’m not!) My advice is to force those boatloads of readers who may not even know they are readers to think, “That’s something I got to get.” Witness the music business’s sudden realization that yeah they can’t hold onto content anymore. Labels will try anything to get folks hooked on an artist they’re trying to break, but except for some random (House) gimmicks like announcing to the media that last week something was available for free and lookie lookie, we tried something “cool,” book people are afraid to let anything digitized get out there and fight the concept tooth plus nail.

6. Bookstore chains are difficult corporations? Let’s be real. Borders, Amazon, Barnes & Noble are just as scared about the economy as publishers are. So I say work with the little stores just as hard as you used to with the biggies. Every little venue needs handholding and we authors will help get the word out, but everyone in pub is so afraid to say anything that might be construed as “insulting.” At Harper-Collins I wanted to offer free marketing advice to stores who bought, “Punk Marketing.” And as a marketer I’m pretty damn expensive. Some consultant there said, “We can’t do that—someone will think it’s demeaning.” What? Grow up. No one cares about being insulted—they care about getting something for free. See 5.

7. Why is everyone so afraid to make waves? Isn’t that the only way to rise above the noise! Retail seems to be dying—and yet the stores scare publishers in ways that shake my head involuntarily. I’ve done books with most of the big publishers, and no one ever said to Barnes & Noble: “We want placement, what’s it going to take to get it? This book is important!” I know that BN is LOOKING for ballishness. They want publishers to get behind authors. Especially those who can promote themselves with some help. Honestly, those big corporate publishing behemoths have power, but don’t use it. Gosh. As my 9th grade teacher once told me: “Prove you are the one who can take the ball and run with it.” Publishers need to take live ones - authors with big mouths - and make them stand out as new discoveries BEFORE they are already discovered.

8. You won’t publish me even if I’m the next Tolstoy unless I have a platform of my own? Yeah I get it. I’m all about the podcasts, the blogs, the articles, the mini-tours, the loud hawking, what is dubbed “relentless” push for my product…. In 2002 I got myself booked with the then-adorable Katie Couric on Today Show for “trendSpotting” and I told the people at Penguin-Putnam who thought I was kidding (”Well, let’s see”) —and when I was scheduled they didn’t bother to alert sales force, stores, or anyone. So 20 million watched me cavorting with that perky thing, and a dozen books were in stores. Publishers don’t know how to sell, that’s the fact. They wait. Very Darwinian. If something takes off THEN they start pumping out the marketing.

9. What about the number of books? Publishers will have to “break” artists like the music biz does and don’t just publish whatever sounds good … Save your money and invest in a few key artists. A final thought here: Since so many people (not me, I say with my arms folded) write books so they can buy thousands to give to prospects or customers, let’s not allow them into mainstream channels any longer. You guys stick with the professional writers.

10. The agents are working for exactly whom? Lit agents I’ve met, with few exceptions, though none I can think of as I type, are beyond frightened of pissing off the editors, so they won’t fight like Hollywood agents will for the clients. They say things like, “Well yes, it’s cheap money, kiddo, but think of it as an annuity.” Or, “I wish I could do more but they’ll never budge” or this one (breathe deeply, Richard): “You’re lucky to get it.” The lawyer I use in La La Land would teach those foohs mottos like: “We’ll cut them off at the knees—since gees they act like they deserve less of one.”

11. What’s with all the titles? Who’s the editor, who’s the president, who’s the publisher, who’s the director …? And who’s the marketing director of strategic planning? The world’ most successful businesses don’t sit around having meetings all day - Google? - and golly, turf wars are so 90’s! Publishing geeks seem so afraid to step on one another’s toes. “Let’s have a meeting to see how X feels about it.” Garrrrrh! All that endless chitchats around oak tables. I say let’s fan out, make trouble, be disruptive, start our own religion … anything,. Plan less — do more. Rise up. Be aggressive. As Fred Trump once said, “No one gets any work done in the office.”

12. Small publishers? Nah, don’t think so. I found they were just as cheap-headed as their older brother, and only provided support when the author paid his own way. Seems like the small publisher is a misnomer–like indie film. Neither exists except as marketing gimmick. In the long run, small comes knocking with finger-in-air offers like the Midwest publisher who nervily said “Here’s five grand” advance for a book about the porn industry’s history of influencing business decisions thru history… (Where’s Judith Regan when I need her!!!)

13. Finally, and for the good of the readers, shouldn’t everything be made available online? We’re inundated with material to read online and that takes our attention. Having a book in hand – even on the excellent Kindle, which is really fun—isn’t the most efficient way to digest someone’s work. Like when I read a book offline and want to share a passage with a friend, I have to type it out, yeah! That’s almost as frustrating as not being able to send my DVR moments to pals who absolutely need to see that sucky ad I witnessed.
Whatever comes of publishing—chapters online via micropayments, baby—I can look backwards and remember with glee when my first representation, “Native’s Guide to New York.” came out 19 years ago and that arrogant publisher sat me down and said to his staff of onlookers: “Let’s hire a PR person and get this crazed nonstop talker into as many outlets as we can get him to do before he’s worn-out!”

Those were the days, my friend, hoped they’d never end. They did. I want them back.

[Stay around Laermer.com for the second part of this 3-part essay titled, “Whither Product?”]

Today’s the day that “2011: Trendspotting” is officially released.

So… What’s it all about?

Start with a clear head and a sense that everything that’s happened in the last couple of years is about to fall away, whether you want to pick at the dead skin or not. Then take an overarching peek at what’s ahead—while knowing that the conventional wisdom is totally wrong. After that, you laugh a lot at everything you’ve livedthrough—and some of us even have to take a gander at those horrible haircuts of the 1970s to remind ourselves that mistakes are meant to be remembered, chuckled at, then forgotten forever.

For the cherry, you dust yourself off and start anew, usingthe tools you have learned from everyone you listen to andbelieve in. If those people are saying anything resembling thetruth, you are in good shape.

So it is: an exploration of trends that will affect our lives and a sense of what we have to overcome just beforewe leap into the new about-to-be-filled space. Or, as Woody Allen once said: “A kind of void, you know, an empty one.”

And now the news: I don’t want to predict a thing—notreally. Regardless of what the soothsayers you read have beensaying (and think about it: a book? Are you kidding? How old- world, anyway?), prediction of even the simplest events is extremely difficult and at best a finger in the air.

What am I going to do, predict new types of cities and worldviews and sex and networking and the dance between workers and employers, yada yada?

Or, particularly, forecast how we all change constantly? Then there’re the topics I have chosen: notorious people and famous places, social movements, ecologica lideals, communication issues, artistic thoughts, sex forthe ages, science, and all that outlandish tech.

Predicting all that is just impossible. What I’ll do, rather, is explain and forecast a range of possible futures for the subject, which is what will begin happening around the year 2011 and beyond—create a map, rather than aspecific one-dimensional destination!

Most books build credibility by employing a tone of absolute authority and driving away any shadow of uncertainty. When I am working in fields where one can make credible projections or where there are accepted techniques for long-term forecasts, I will speak with confidence and say you can’t stop this. But a kind of majestic confidence is false—fake, actually. (See the chapter “Self Something or Other,” on artificial confidence.)

On the contrary, it is imperative that I admitonce and for all that looking into the future is an uncertain business—except for certain people who read magic eight balls with uncanny ability.

Here I explain to you - already doubting you - why this is so and why it can be a cause for anxious hope. Am I a futurist? I guess so. Since the publication of my first trends book, “TrendSpotting,” in 2002, I’ve been told I am—by the major andminor media, and by a host of influentials.

But I don’t believe in clichés and run from them with my legs flailing! The book did a good job of looking ahead for you (and me). A book teaching folks how to look ahead for business calls for intelligent, grounded speculation, and of course professional expertise was the call of that day. I am not really as much futuristic as I am a show-off: I want you to use this stuff thatI’ve gathered and realized to chart possibilities.

Here is what we will talk about in these pages. Will this book tell you about the future? More than anything,it’s loaded with topics: ideas to spur you on, move you in certain directions, and inspire you to look ahead.

* We all will work while we’re sleeping. Gosh, are all thesenew products going to be, ahem, utilized in hours when we’re supposedly adrift in our dreams? So no more wasted hours for us suckers!

* Self-involvement evolves into an art form. What used to be gross and looked down upon—self-aggrandizement— becomes in no uncertain terms beloved and coveted. Everyone wants to be like David Geffen.

* Slow attention span takes precedence. ADD peaks.We begin to take a backseat to speed, and the sudden craze is, “Why rush? We have all the time in the world.” Some businessesare born; others are down!

* Customer service finally becomes law. That’s enough ofbeing put on hold. After years of thinking silently, a newmovement is afoot: it’s an adhered-to policy to take care of the paying folk!

* Look forward to “turn of the decade syndrome,” where we reboot our lives. Come January 2011, the actual start of a new decade (and not a moment too soon, y’all) is upon us. Everyone prepares madly—just like Y2K, but positively—and uses it to make the one change to themselves that they’ve been desperate to achieve. So quit, start, redo—or forgive. It all happens on that very day!

* There’s a movement to stay at home that occurs because— there’s no real explanation, so why fake it? Our friends are more relaxed and friendly there.

You’ll notice in the book that each chapter is short, seriously so. That’s what you want, and belaboring 70 or 90 topics seemed really dull and unnecessary.

Take a look at it.

The future of the future is a huge idea. It scares the crap outof me. The only way to make a book out of it (except that I had a contract, dude) was to give as much knowledge as my braincould muster, and try to leave out nonsense that I found fascinating when I honestly knew that it was only me who got what it was—or cared.

Thanks for joining.

Dear Blog Person:

Junk. That’s what these last few years has amassed.  In an effort to combat mass eye-rolling and sighing, I have written a new book that looks at the glorious and positive news and knowledge we should look forward to in the next decade.

This blog is about 2011—and getting there. The book is a guide to the fantastic decade ahead for capitalists, out on 4/10 and now via Amazon.  

I created 77 short-short chapters based on research, forecasting, hunches, and insider data on topics as wide-reaching as…the berth is huge.   I’m the man behind Full Frontal PR, trendSpotting, and the recent collection of no-BS advice to salespeople called Punk Marketing. Each has a cult following for being just left of bullshit and contains funny, digestible and valuable stuff for whoever dives in. In the new collection– my most adventurous and the last for a while—I am working with a publisher as “out there” as I am. 

Heck, since the idea of a book is old world to start with (my Mom didn’t bring up no fool), McGraw-Hill and I are crafting a hilarious design that is even a bit farfetched. That means: bullets, lists, thought-bubbles, icons, outrageous moments, and footnotes (my trademark) that are actually next to the sentences themselves. You can even read the thing upside down.  Speaking of stand out, with the book is this, the wholly up-to-the-minute destination called, of all things, Laermer.com. On it are planned daily updates on news, trends, thoughts and impolitic asides for 2011’s participants to giggle with—and add their takes.  Also, I will drop in quizzes, prizes, and more quizzes.   Now the pitch: Just grab a quiet moment and read –either my book or this blog or anything except another damn email. As for me: Look. I’m as cynical as you are, and I know how many trend books are out there. But I’m not Faith Popcorn with a finger in the air! That’s why nothing here is proffered as deathly serious—unless you count the chapter on the death of reading.   Enough from me—at least for a second… See you here. Call me if you need a laugh. 

We Are Happy To Serve.

And I am going to beat McDonald’s yet! (More on that in future posts.)